Welcome to the 22nd edition of this newsletter. It was another busy week of Russia news, but there was also some news on the domestic side of things and we got all that covered below, but not before you click that blue subscribe button below. And now without further ado, the news for the week of December 12-18.
Putin’s Dilemma
Over the past several weeks we have discussed the build up of Russian forces on the border with Ukraine mostly from the perspective of the United States, Ukraine, or the West generally. This week, let us talk about it from Putin’s perspective because he, perhaps deliberately, appears to be painting himself into a corner.
Last week we discussed the possibility of some of NATO’s big players meeting with Russia to discuss relevant topics, but NATO has already rejected a big Russian demand: that NATO rescind its 2008 Bucharest Summit declaration that stated that one day Ukraine and Georgia will become alliance members.
This week, Putin had a new demand: pre-1997 NATO members should not deploy their forces to post-1997 NATO members. Since Russia dismembered Ukraine in 2014, NATO has conducted rotational deployments to its eastern members. It is almost impossible to see NATO agreeing to letting Putin dictate terms to the house of European security that he burned down, especially when NATO’s frontline members are the tiny Baltics.
Here we get to Putin’s dilemma. Putin has been making demands he surely knows NATO can not accept, he has accused Ukraine of waging genocide in the east, and said that NATO wants to turn Russia into Muscovy (For those not up to speed on their Russian history, that would be like saying America’s enemies want to return us to the geographic space made up of the 13 original colonies as contained by the Appalachians).
It is hard to see how Putin backs down from this, if he is indeed bluffing. It is going to be hard to go from beating your chest to portray yourself as some sort of tough guy who is claiming Russia’s very existence is threatened to a more negotiated deal where you come away with a set of proverbial steak knives. As it turns out, Admiral Painter might have been wrong, maybe Russians do take dumps without a plan.
Of course, it could just be a pretext because ultimately time is running short for Putin to reestablish the “glory days.” Personally he is 69 years old, so he has limited time to solidify his legacy as one of Russia’s great leaders. Politically, every day that goes by is a day Ukraine drifts further West and it is not certain that Russia’s younger generation longs for the “glory days” of Russia and Ukraine being “one people” as much as Putin does. Ordinary Russians may agree with Putin, but they are not clamoring for a war.
That means his options are limited. We can only hope there is some resemblance of logic left in that brain of his that tells him a guerilla war and economic ruin are not worth it.
The Warren Court (No Not That One, The Other One)
Sen. Elizabeth Warren is not deterred by the fact that President Biden’s commission to study potential “reforms” to the Supreme Court came and went without any fanfare or suggestions on said “reforms.”
In a Boston Globe op-ed, Warren proposes adding four new justices to the Court and says “I don’t come to this conclusion lightly or because I disagree with a particular decision; I come to this conclusion because I believe the current court threatens the democratic foundations of our nation.”
I wonder why Warren picked four as her number. I am sure, based on the above quotation, that it has nothing to do with the fact there currently six conservatives (or conservative-ish) justices and three liberals. I am also sure that she is being completely honest when it has nothing to do with a particular decision, despite listing several decisions or hypothetical decisions in the article.
No, Warren is being completely sincere and not a political hack. Biting sarcasm aside, the fact that Republicans could always re-pack the Court is irrelevant to her. The fact that overturning Roe v. Wade would return the issue to the states, legislatures, and the people, thereby making the country more small-d democratic is a glaring hypocrisy that she, again, does not care about.
Of course, despite her claims to not be coming to this conclusion lightly, the opposite is true. Anybody can write a pathetic excuse for an op-ed in the local newspaper knowing full well that she will never actually have to vote on such a norm-destroying nominee.
Oh My, It’s Omicron
Omicron is here and by most accounts it appears to be more contagious, but less lethal than the Delta variant, so naturally people are reacting in serious and mature ways. No, of course, they are not. The NFL is battening down the hatches as if it is still 2020, universities are doing the same thing, and some are wondering if we should be mandating booster shots now that the two-dose regimen does not seem to be effective with Pfizer’s CEO raising the possibility of a fourth dose being needed. For the love of all that is good and holy, please, make it stop!
When you start getting into talk of booster shots to give your booster an extra boost, it is time to re-evaluate what we are doing here. Actually, the time to do that was months ago, but I will play along. If we are going to talk about returning to 2020-style restrictions despite 94.6% of NFL players being vaccinated, mandates for college students, and boosters, then when is this going to end? If booster shots are not even enough to convince people to go back to normal, what is?
If a fourth (and eventually a fifth and eventually a sixth and eventually, well, you get the point) dose is going to be needed then just come out and say the COVID vaccine is like the flue vaccine. It is something to be taken on either an annual or biannual basis, but other than that, it is time to move on. We still have public health officials, politicians, schools, and businesses obsessing over case numbers like the vaccine does not even exist. Nobody in their right mind would say “we need a 37th dose of the flu vaccine, because everybody knows that Zero Flu is not in the cards. Enough already.
Nuclear Folly
About 700 scientists and engineers have decided to use their expertise in science and engineering to comment on… nuclear weapons strategy? Yes, they are asking Biden to declare a no first use policy and to cut the U.S. arsenal by a third. That is insanely stupid.
And the timing is even dumber. As we have documented extensively, Putin currently has a potential invasion force on the Ukrainian border and the Eastern Europeans are worried that they might be next, but while such concerns are understandable, Putin is still almost certain to never invade a NATO country. Why? Because Estonia is not worth several mushroom clouds. By adopting a no first use policy you make it exponentially easier for Putin, or anybody else, to present us a fait accompli. As such, you leave all of our allies naked and open to aggression, which could very well lead to them getting nukes of their own.
On the other side of the world, China is currently engaging in a massive build up of its own stockpile, not because it is going to launch a reckless first strike against America, but because it makes conventional war with Taiwan easier for them. Right now, the disparately between the American and Chinese arsenals gives us an advantage on the escalation ladder. If they are more equal, then we will far less willing to run up that said ladder, thus giving Beijing less to fear, thus giving them more reason to engage in a conventional war with Taipei.
These scientists should go back to their labs and leave nuclear strategy to others.
Some Other Things
Vladimir Putin wants you to know that the fall of the Soviet Union was real rough for him. He had to spend part of the 1990s working as a cab driver, so of course he is threatening to invade Ukraine.
The professional sports world, which claims to care deeply about human rights and democracy, continues to jump into bed with communist China. The latest example is the NFL which has given the Los Angeles Rams access to China while also claiming Taiwan is part of China. The Rams are owned by Stan Kroenke, who also owns Arsenal, who distanced itself from comments Mesut Ozil in 2019 calling out China for waging genocide against the Uyghurs.
The folks at the U.K. Defense Journal reports that the Royal Air Force has been put on high alert over some unusual Arctic air activity.
ICYMI
Weekly Randomness
Presented without comment:
The original story for The Santa Clause had Tim Allen shooting and killing Santa.
Looking Forward to Celebrating…
Christmas on Saturday, December 25.